Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Seven Protected Plants in China

The effects of climate change on the distributions of Alsophila spinulosa(Alsophila spinulosa(Wall.Ex Hook.) Tryon),Tetracentron(Tetracentron sinense Oliv),Dipentondon(Dipentondon sinicus Dunn) Wingceltis(Pteroceltis tatarinowii Maxim),common peach-seven(Sinopodophyllum emodi(Wall.)Ying),Chinese larch(Larix chinensis Beissn) and Henry Wilsontree(Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsl) from China were analyzed using the classification and regression tree(CART) niche model and climate change scenarios of A2 and B2.The results showed that climate change will cause a decrease in the current Chinese distribution of these plants.Chinese larch,Henry Wilsontree or Tetracentron exhibited the largest decrease,Dipentondon and Wingceltis was lower than Chinese larch,Henry Wilsontree,and Tetracentron,and the decrease of Alsophila spinulosa and common peach-seven showed the smallest decrease.The new and total distribution region of Chinese larch or Henry Wilsontree decreased from 1991-2020 and 2081-2100,while the remaining plants increased from 1991-2020 and 2081-2100,and they were higher in A2 scenario than those in B2 Scenario.Following climate change,distribution regions of Chinese larch would be mostly lost.The current distribution regions in the southwest,southeast,south and west of the other plant species would be reduced,while new distribution regions would expand towards the west,northwest,north,northeast,and southeast.Additionally,the current,new,and total distribution of the plants were either poorly related to or did not change consistently with the change in annual mean air temperature or precipitation.The linear relationships between the change in plant distribution and annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation in China were poor except for the linear relationships between the change in the new or total distribution of Alsophila spinulosa and current distribution of Dipentondon and common peach-seven with annual mean air temperature or annual mean precipitation change in China.The results indicated that climate change in China will cause changes in spatial distribution pattern of these plants,decrease their current distribution regions,decrease new distribution of Chinese larch and Henry Wilsontree,and increase new distribution of the other plants.