Ecological characteristics and regionalization of Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge, a woody energy plant
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摘要: 利用文冠果（Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge）160个分布点和19个生态因子数据，采用BIOCLIM、DOMAIN、MAXENT和GARP四种模型预测文冠果的生态适宜区，分析其生态特征并以受试者工作特征曲线ROC对各模型进行评价。结果显示，文冠果最适宜生态区主要分布于西北黄土高原一带，如陕西、山西、宁夏、河北、内蒙古等省区。模型评估结果显示上述4个模型的AUC值均达到0.75以上，表明预测精度良好，均可用来预测文冠果的生态适宜区。文冠果的生态特征为：年平均温度1.9~16℃，昼夜温差月平均8.3~16℃，昼夜温差与年温差比值为22~33，温度变化方差值为7523~14198；最热月份最高温度为20.1~33.5℃；年平均降水量37~952 mm，最湿月份降水量11~219 mm，最干月份降水量0~29 mm，雨量变化方差值为40~137。研究结果表明文冠果适宜生态区包括我国西部的黄土高原地区和北方土石山区以及新疆北部地区。Abstract: According to 160 global distribution points of Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge and 19 ecological variables, four ecological niche models, including BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, GARP, and MAXENT, were used to predict the potential distribution areas of X. sorbifolia and analyze its ecological characteristics. The accuracies of the models were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results showed that the ecologically suitable area was mainly in the range of 30°N to 50°N, including northwest, northeast, and north China, and the most suitable area was primarily in the Loess Plateau in the west, including Shaanxi, Shanxi, Ningxia, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia. The model evaluation results proved that the four methods were reliable as the AUC values were all greater than 0.75. The ecological characteristics of X. sorbifolia were mean annual temperature of 1.9-16℃, mean monthly temperature range of 8.3-16℃, isothermality of 22-33, temperature seasonality of 7523-14198, max temperature in the warmest month of 20.1℃ to 33.5℃, annual precipitation of 37 mm to 952 mm, precipitation in the wettest month of 11 mm to 219 mm, precipitation in the driest month of 0 to 29 mm, and coefficient of variation in precipitation seasonality of 40-137. We concluded that the ecological suitable areas for X. sorbifolia were located in the Loess Plateau region in west China and rocky mountain areas in the north as well as northern regions of Xinjiang.
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