Identification of Potential Distribution Areas for Energy Plant Jatropha curcas L. Using the Maxent Entropy Model
-
摘要: 麻疯树（Jatropha curcas L.）为传统能源植物，是作为生物柴油最具希望的植物资源之一。本研究通过收集麻疯树分布点的经纬度数据，基于气候、土壤和地形等37个相关生态因子，采用最大信息熵模型，预测麻疯树的潜在适宜区域，分析影响其生长的主要生态因子特征。结果显示，麻疯树生长最适宜区域主要分布在我国华南地区的广东、海南、香港、台湾和西南地区的广西、云南、四川；对麻疯树分布贡献率较大的主要生态因子为：最暖季度降水量（53.5%）、温度季节性变化标准差（15.8%）、降水量变异系数（9.3%）、年均温变化范围（5.8%）、最湿季度降水量（3.6%）、最干月降水量（3.2%）；Maxent模型预测的AUC值大于0.9，表明对麻疯树潜在分布的预测结果较准确。本文对麻疯树潜在分布区域以及影响其分布的主要生态条件的研究结果，可为麻疯树的种植栽培提供科学依据。Abstract: As a traditional energy species, Jatropha curcas L. is a promising biodiesel plant resource. In this study, we collected the latitude and longitude data of J. curcas distribution, and used the Maxent entropy model to predict potentially suitable areas for J. curcas based on 37 ecological factors, including climate, soil, and topography, and analyzed which of these factors most affected the growth of J. curcas. Results showed that the most suitable growth areas for J. curcas were in Guangdong, Hainan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Guangxi, Yunnan, and Sichuan. The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of J. curcas included precipitation of warmest quarter (contribution rate of 53.5%), Standard deviation of temperature seasonality (15.8%), coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality (9.3%), annual temperature range (5.8%), precipitation of wettest quarter (3.6%), and precipitation of driest month (3.2%). The areas under the ROC curves were all above 0.9, indicating that the predictive results with the Maxent model were highly precise. These results reveal the potential distribution areas and bioclimatic conditions for J. curcas habitat and growth, which can provide a scientific basis for its planting.
-
Keywords:
- Jatropha curcas /
- Energy plants /
- Maxent entropy model /
- Ecological factors /
- Suitability index
-
-
[1] 尹存波, 王华, 殷瑶, 赵世珉, 施顺李, 李剑, 苟平, 王耘. 小桐子选育及繁殖技术[J]. 现代农业科技, 2014(5):195-196. Yin CB, Wang H, Yin Y, Zhao SM, Shi SL, Li J, Gou P, Wang Y. Breeding and multiplication of Jatropha curcas L.[J]. Modern Agricultural Science and Technology, 2014(5):195-196.
[2] 周会娥. 发展小桐子初议[J]. 农村实用技术, 2015(8):15-17. Zhou HE. Preliminary discussion on the development of Jatropha curcas L.[BFY] [J]. Applicable Technologies for Rural Areas, 2015(8):15-17.
[3] 吴平治, 吴国江. 木本油料植物麻疯树的研究进展[J]. 生命科学, 2014, 26(5):497-502. Wu PZ, Wu GJ. Research progress of energy plant Jatropha curcas L.[BFY] [J]. Chinese Bulletin of Life Sciences, 2014, 26(5):497-502.
[4] 谷丽萍, 郭永清, 泽桑梓, 杨旭, 李江, 陈伟, 阮宏华. 云南干热河谷不同密度麻疯树人工林土壤活性有机碳特征[J]. 西北林学院学报, 2014,29(2):26-31. Gu LP, Guo YQ, Ze SZ, Yang X, Li J, Chen W, Ruan HH. Characteristics of soil active organic carbon in Jatropha curcas plantations with different densities in dryhot valley area of Yunnan Province[J]. Journal of Northwest Forestry University, 2014, 29(2):26-31.
[5] 赵伟红, 初阳, 李宁. 麻疯树属植物化学成分和药理活性的研究进展[J]. 现代药物与临床, 2014, 29(91):97-104. Zhao WH, Chu Y, Li N. Research progress on chemical constituents and pharmacological activities of plants in Jatropha L.[BFY] [J].Drugs & Clinic, 2014, 29(91):97-104.
[6] 刘方炎, 李昆, 孙永玉. 中国麻疯树研究进展与开发利用现状[J]. 中国农业大学学报, 2012, 17(6):178-184. Liu FY, Li K, Sun YY. Research development and utilization status on Jatropha curcas in China[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University, 2012,17(6):178-184.
[7] 杨恩福. 浅析发展小桐子的新思路[J].内蒙古农业调查设计, 2015,38(5):121-123. Yang EF. The new ideas of development of Jatropha curcas L.[BFY] [J].Inner Mongolia Forestry Investigation and Design, 2015, 38(5):121-123.
[8] Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecol Modeling, 2006, 190(3):231-259.
[9] Radosavljevic A, Anderson RP. Making better MaxEnt models of species distributions:complexity, overfitting and evaluation[J]. J Biogeogr, 2014, 41(4):629-643.
[10] Kumar S, Graham J, West AM, Evangelista PH. Using district-level occurrences in MaxEnt for predicting the invasion potential of an exotic insect pest in India[J]. Comput Electron Agr, 2014, 103(2):55-62.
[11] 王娟娟, 曹博, 白成科, 张琳琳, 车乐. 基于Maxent和ArcGIS预测川贝母潜在分布及适宜性评价[J]. 植物研究, 2014, 34(5):642-649. Wang JJ, Cao B, Bai CK, Zhang LL, Che L. Potential distribution prediction and suitability evaluation of Fritillaria cirrhosa D. Don based on Maxent modeling and GIS[J].Bulletin of Botanical Research, 2014, 34(5):642-649.
[12] 张路. 基于Maxent模型预测齿裂大戟在中国的潜在分布区[J]. 生物安全学报, 2015, 24(3):194-200. Zhang L. Prediction of potential distribution area of Euphorbia dentate in China based on Maxent model[J].Journal of Biosafety, 2015, 24(3):194-200.
[13] 龚维, 夏青, 陈红锋, 俞新华,伍菲. 珍稀濒危植物伯乐树的潜在适生区预测[J]. 华南农业大学学报, 2015,36(4):98-104. Gong W, Xia Q, Chen HF, Yu XH, Wu F. Prediction of potential distributions of Bretschneidera sinensis, an rare and endangered plant species in China[J]. Journal of South China Agricultural University, 2015, 36(4):98-104.
[14] 陈思,丁建清. 外来湿地植物再力花适生性分析[J]. 植物科学学报, 2011, 29(6):675-682. Chen S, Ding JQ. Risk Assessment and spread potential of alien wetland plant species Thalia dealbata in China[J].Plant Science Journal, 2011,29(6):675-682.
[15] 于晶, 唐艳雪, 郭水良. 基于GIS和MaxEnt比较中国砂藓属与紫萼藓属植物地理分布[J]. 植物科学学报, 2012, 30(5):443-458. Yu J, Tang YX, Guo SL. Comparison of the geographical distribution of Racomitrium and Grimmia in China using ArcGis and MaxEnt software[J].Plant Science Journal, 2012,30(5):443-458.
[16] 吴庆明,王磊,朱瑞萍,杨宇博,金洪阳,邹红菲. 基于MAXENT模型的丹顶鹤营巢生境适宜性分析——以扎龙保护区为例[J]. 生态学报,2016,36(12):1-7. Wu QM, Wang L, Zhu RP, Yang YB, Jin HY, Zou HF. Nesting habitat suitability analysis of red were for crane in Zhalong Nature Reserve based on MAXENT modeling[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(12):1-7.
[17] 尹芳, 刘磊, 江东, 任红艳. 麻疯树生物柴油发展适宜性、能量生产潜力与环境影响评估[J]. 农业工程学报, 2012,28(14):201-208. Yin F, Liu L, Jiang D, Ren HY. Assessments of suitability, energy capacity and environment impact on biodiesel from Jatropha curcas L.[BFY] [J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2012, 28(14):201-208.
[18] 黄金保, 罗永锋. 贵州生物质能的开发利用现状及发展前景[J]. 应用能源技术, 2012(10):1-8. Huang JB, Luo YF. Current situation of utilization and development prospect of biomass energy in Guizhou[J]. Applied Energy Technology, 2012(10):1-8.
[19] 孙亚明. 攀枝花麻疯树发展的现状及其对策思考[J]. 农业建设, 2015(2):33-37. Sun YM. Development status and relevant countermea-sures on Jatropha curcas L. in Panzhihua[J]. Forestry Construction, 2015(2):33-37.
[20] 张磊, 李文昌, 苟平, 齐冸伦, 袁理春. 云南麻风树资源及开发利用现状[J].中国热带农业, 2011(6):34-35. Zhang L, Li WC, Gou P, Qi PL, Yuan LC. Current situation of Jatropha curcas L. resources and exploitation in Yunnan[J]. China Tropical Agriculture, 2011(6):34-35.
计量
- 文章访问数: 1276
- HTML全文浏览量: 1
- PDF下载量: 1358
下载:
