Potential geographical distribution of five Lithocarpus species in China and their response to climate change

In this paper, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS 10.3) software were used to quantitatively model the suitable distribution of five economically valuable Lithocarpus species in China and to predict their future distribution under two different climate scenarios. Results showed that L. litseifolius (Hance) Chun. was widely distributed south of the Huaihe River in the Qinling Mountains of China, whereas L. brevicaudatus (Skan) Hay. was mainly distributed in the central and eastern subtropical regions of China. Under future climate (2061-2080) scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), the suitable distribution areas for L. litseifolius decreased by 5.1% and 3.0%, respectively, whereas those for L. brevicaudatus increased by 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively. Results also showed that L. dealbatus (Hook. f. et Thoms. ex DC.) Rehd. was mainly distributed in northern Yunnan and southern Sichuan, whereas L. corneus (Lour.) Rehd. was mainly distributed in the southern subtropical regions of Guangdong and Guangxi. Under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the suitable distribution areas for L. dealbatus decreased by 12.1% and 3.5% and for L. corneus decreased by 17.8% and 15.9%, respectively. In addition, L. elizabethae (Tutch.) Rehd. was mainly distributed in Guangxi and under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, suitable distribution area increased by 7.3% and 6.3%, respectively. Thus, based on differences in geographical distribution, these sympatric tree species exhibited different distribution responses to future climatic change. By predicting the distribution of potential suitable areas of the five Lithocarpus species under different climate change scenarios, this study provides strategic guidance for their future protection and utilization.